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AI Research Scientist · Scaling Laws & Stability

Neural scaling law breakdowns and irreducible loss

Real lesson card · Page 1 of 4

Neural scaling law breakdowns and irreducible loss

Reducible loss

The reducible component of loss is the part that keeps shrinking as you scale up parameters, data, or training compute — it’s the model still learning to predict what’s actually predictable in the data.
Example
A curve fitted from 1e18–1e20 FLOPs shows loss falling from 3.2 to 2.1 nats; nearly all of that 1.1-nat drop is reducible loss being learned away.

Recall check from the same lesson

Because the fitted curve was validated on runs between 1e19 and 1e21 FLOPs, extrapolating it to 1e26 FLOPs (five orders of magnitude beyond) is just as reliable as an interpolation within that range, since the same power-law exponent should hold at any scale.

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